原创力文档correcting the actual reproduction number a simple method to estimate r0 from early epidemic growth data纠正实际的繁殖数量一个简单的方法来估计r0从早期流行的增长数据.pdf
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correcting the actual reproduction number a simple method to estimate r0 from early epidemic growth data纠正实际的繁殖数量一个简单的方法来估计r0从早期流行的增长数据
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2010, 7, 291-302; doi:10.3390/ijerph7010291
OPEN ACCESS
International Journal of
Environmental Research and
Public Health
ISSN 1660-4601
/journal/ijerph
Article
Correcting the Actual Reproduction Number: A Simple Method
to Estimate R0 from Early Epidemic Growth Data
Hiroshi Nishiura 1,2
1 PRESTO, Japan Science and Technology Agency, Saitama, 332-0012, Japan
2 Theoretical Epidemiology, University of Utrecht, Yalelaan 7, Utrecht, 3584CL, The Netherlands;
E-Mail: h.nishiura@uu.nl; Tel.: +31-30-253-4097; Fax: +31-30-252-1887
Received: 24 December 2009 / Accepted: 18 January 2010 / Published: 21 January 2010
Abstract: The basic reproduction number, R , a summary measure of the transmission
0
potential of an infectious disease, is estimated from early epidemic growth rate, but a
likelihood-based method for the estimation has yet to be developed. The present study
corrects the concept of the actual reproduction number, offering a simple framework for
estimating R0 without assuming exponential growth of cases. The proposed method is
applied to the HIV epidemic in European countries, yielding R0 values ranging from 3.60
to 3.74, consistent with those based on
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