房地产市场、银行信贷与经济增长—基于面板数据的经验研究.doc

 房地产市场、银行信贷与经济增长—基于面板数据的经验研究 中国人民银行营业管理部金融研究处 李宏瑾 Real Estate, Bank Loans and Economic Growth —— An Empirical Study Based on Panel Data 论文投稿领域：中国经济改革 或 数理经济与计量经济学 研究领域：微观经济学、制度经济学、监管理论 联系方式：中国人民银行营业管理部金融研究处，北京市月坛南街79号，邮编 100045, 电话，010电子邮件， HYPERLINK "mailto:leehongjin@" leehongjin@。 房地产市场、银行信贷与经济增长——基于面板数据的经验研究 中国人民银行营业管理部金融研究处 李宏瑾 内容提要 本文针对近年来我国房地产市场价格持续攀升但市场需求不降反升、银行信贷资金迅速向房地产业集中以及房地产市场发展与经济增长的作用等问题，以全国和各省、市、自治区的面板数据，进行了实证分析。分析结果显示，我国房地产市场供给约束问题非常严重，尤其是考虑到居民收入增长因素后，房地产市场的供求矛盾十分突出；银行房地产开发贷款和个人住房贷款强有力地支撑了房地产市场的供求；房地产市场的发展也拉动了经济的增长，但这一作用没有我们想象的大。因此，目前我国针对房地产市场的宏观调控和各项监管措施，都应该从供求两方面出发，在金融等政策上要保持连续性，并加强制度建设，更好地发挥市场机制的作用。 关键词 房地产 银行信贷 经济增长 Abstract Recent years, with the rising price, the housing demands also rise quickly, which is strange to the common sense of economics. In addition, the relationship between banking sector and housing industry has become more and close, and the growth of housing industry pull the economic growth dramatically. Based on the panel data of the nation and provinces, we try an empirical study on the topics above. The empirical results show that at least in the nowadays China’s market, one of the most sever problem in the real estate market is the constraints of the housing supply compared to the demand if we consider the effects of the residents’ income growth. Bank loans are maybe the most effective factor pulling the housing industry growth, both on the supply side and the demand. To our surprise, the effect of housing consumption on the economic growth is less than we have assumed, considering the cyclical changes of the economy. . So we draw the followed policy implications in the further macroeconomic managements: we must take the measures directly to both the supply and the demand sides, keep the policies’ continuity, strengthen the institutional progress and make the market mechanism more effective. Key words: real estate; bank loans; economy growth 一、导言 随着2003年初我国经济进入新一轮经济上升周期，有关我国房地产业的讨论也