《计量经济学》第7章人口.ppt

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《计量经济学》第7章人口.ppt

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PartThreeHumanResources

Chapter7.Population

HistoryofHumanPopulationNumberDemographictransition(人口转变)

Number3Billion:20October19594Billion:27June19745Billion:21January19876Billion:5December19987Billion:31October20118Billion:15June20259Billion:18February204310Billion:18June2083

PopulationIn2010theestimatedglobalhumanpopulationwas7.0142billion.Theestimatedgrowthratefor1975–2005was1.6%peryear.Thestaggeringincreaseinhumanpopulationinthesecondhalfofthetwentiethcentury:in1950worldpopulationwas2.5billion-itnearto3timesover60yearsto7billionin2010.Atthebeginningofthenineteenthcenturytheworldspopulationisestimatedtohavebeenabout0.9billion.TheprojectionsfortheglobalhumanpopulationshowninFigure2.4aretakenfromUNPopulationDivision2010.Theydifferaccordingtotheassumptionsmadeaboutfertility.Themediumprojectionassumesthatfertilityinallmajorareasoftheworldstabilisesatthereplacementlevelaround2050.Thelowprojectionassumesthatfertilityishalfachildlowerthanformedium,andthehighprojectionhalfachildhigher.Thelongrunprospectsforthesizeofthehumanpopulationareverysensitivetowhatisassumedaboutfuturefertility.

PopulationThecurrentpercentagerateofincreaseofglobalpopulationiswellbelowitshistoricalpeak,havingdecreasedinrecentyearsinallregionsoftheworld.Growthratesarecurrentlyaveragelessthan1%peryearindevelopedcountries(0.8%over1975-2005fortheOECD)andlessthan2%indevelopingcountries(1.9%over1975-2005fordevelopingasdefinedbytheUNDP).Inmanycountries(includingmostOECDcountriesandChina),fertilityratesarebelowthereplacementratesthatarerequiredforapopulationsizetobestationaryinthelongrun.Forthesecountries,populationisdestinedtofallatsomepointinthefutureeventhoughthemomentumofpopulation