IMF-是什么导致贝弗里奇曲线在疫情期间在美国变高？（英）-2024.1.docx

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IMF-是什么导致贝弗里奇曲线在疫情期间在美国变高？（英）-2024.1.docx

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WhatCausedtheBeveridgeCurveToShiftHigherintheUnitedStatesDuringthePandemic?

GeneKindberg-HanlonandMichaelGirardWP/24/8

IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.

TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.

2024

JAN

?2024InternationalMonetaryFund WP/24/8

IMFWorkingPaper

ResearchDepartment

WhatCausedtheBeveridgeCurvetoShiftHigherintheUnitedStatesDuringthePandemic?

PreparedbyGeneKindberg-HanlonandMichaelGirard

AuthorizedfordistributionbyRafaelPortillo

January2024

IMFWorkingPapers

IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.

ABSTRACT:TheBeveridgecurveshiftedsubstantiallyhigherintheUnitedStatesfollowingthestartoftheCOVIDpandemic.In2022,vacanciesreachedrecordhighsacrossallsectorswhileunemploymentfelltopre-pandemiclows.Atthesametime,thepandemichasresultedinseverelaborshortages,andweestimatethatthelaborforcewasapproximately2millionbelowtrendatthestartof2023.Weexploitstate-leveldataintheUnitedStatestofindthatlowerimmigration,higherexcessmortalityduetoCOVID,andfallingolder-workerlaborforceparticipationwereassociatedwithlargerupwardshiftsintheBeveridgecurve.Wealsofindthatstatesthathadalargeremploymentconcentrationincontact-intensivesectorshadlargerupwardshiftsintheirBeveridgecurve.WhiletheeffectofsectoralreallocationandrehiringhasbeenshownintheoreticalmodelstolifttheBeveridgecurve,weshowthatworkershortagesalsoresultinanu