IMF-美国真的摆脱了二战债务吗？（英）-2024.1.docx

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IMF-美国真的摆脱了二战债务吗？（英）-2024.1.docx

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DidtheU.S.ReallyGrowOutofItsWorldWarIIDebt?

JulienAcalinandLaurenceBallWP/24/5

IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.

TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.

2024

JAN

?2024InternationalMonetaryFund WP/24/5

IMFWorkingPaper

ResearchDepartment

DidtheU.S.ReallyGrowOutofItsWorldWarIIDebt?

PreparedbyJulienAcalinandLaurenceBall*

AuthorizedfordistributionbyPrachiMishra

January2024

IMFWorkingPapers

IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.

ABSTRACT:ThefallintheU.S.publicdebt/GDPratiofrom106%in1946to23%in1974isoftenattributedtohighratesofeconomicgrowth.Thispaperexaminestherolesofthreeotherfactors:primarybudgetsurpluses,surpriseinflation,andpeggedinterestratesbeforetheFed-TreasuryAccordof1951.Ourcentralresultisasimulationofthepaththatthedebt/GDPratiowouldhavefollowedwithprimarybudgetbalanceandwithoutthedistortionsinrealinterestratescausedbysurpriseinflationandthepre-Accordpeg.Inthiscounterfactual,debt/GDPdeclinesonlyto74%in1974,not23%asinactualhistory.Moreover,theratiostartsrisingagainin1980andin2022itis84%.Thesefindingsimplythat,overthelast76years,onlyasmallamountofdebtreductionhasbeenachievedthroughgrowthratesthatexceedundistortedinterestrates.

RECOMMENDEDCITATION:Acalin,JulienandLaurenceBall(2024):‘DidtheU.S.ReallyGrowOutofitsWorldWarIIDebt?’,IMFWorkingPaper.

JELClassificationNumbers:

E31,E43,E