IMF-低收入和脆弱国家的通货膨胀与货币政策——以几内亚为例（英）-2023.4-31页.pdf

Inflation and Monetary Policy in a Low- Income and Fragile State: The Case of Guinea Yan Carrière-Swallow, Nelnan Fidèle Koumtingué, and Sebastian Weber WP/23/84 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. 2023 APR © 2023 International Monetary Fund WP/23/84 IMF Working Paper African Department Inflation and Monetary Policy in a Low-Income and Fragile State: The Case of Guinea Prepared by Yan Carrière-Swallow, Nelnan Fidèle Koumtingué, and Sebastian Weber Authorized for distribution by Olaf Unteroberdoerster April 2023 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT: Inflation in low-income countries is often high and volatile, driven by external shocks. In addition, inflation in fragile states is affected by highly volatile domestic factors that complicate monetary policy’s ability to deliver price stability. We estimate the drivers of inflation in Guinea since the early 2000s, a period in which the country suffered major shocks from pandemics, commodity price movements, and multiple military coups, and during which inflation averaged 12 percent. Results confirm that global commodity and transport prices accou