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Eye of the Storm: The
Impact of Climate
Shocks on Inflation
and Growth
Serhan Cevik and João Tovar Jalles
WP/23/87
2023
APR
© 2023 International Monetary Fund WP/23/87
IMF Working Paper
European Department
Eye of the Storm: The Impact of Climate Shocks on Inflation and Growth
Prepared by Serhan Cevik and João Tovar Jalles1
Authorized for distribution by Bernardin Akitoby
April 2023
IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments
and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do
not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
Abstract
What is the impact of climate change on inflation and growth dynamics? This is not a simple
question to answer as climate shocks tend to be ubiquitous, but with opposing effects
simultaneously on demand and supply. The extent of which climate-related shocks affect inflation
and economic growth also depends on long-run scarring in the economy and the country’s fiscal
and institutional capacity to support recovery. In this paper, we use the local projection method to
empirically investigate how climate shocks, as measured by climate-induced natural disasters,
influence inflation and economic growth in a large panel of countries over the period 1970–2020.
The results shows that both inflation and real GDP growth respond significantly but also differently
in terms of direction and magnitude to different types of disasters caused by climate change. We
split the full sample of countries into income groups—advanced economies and developing
countries—and
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