IMF-财政规则是否促进资源丰富国家的财政纪律？（英）-2023.4-37页.pdf

Do Fiscal Rules Foster Fiscal Discipline in Resource-Rich Countries? Ablam Estel Apeti, Olivier Basdevant, and Véronique Salins WP/23/88 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. 2023 APR © 2023 International Monetary Fund WP/23/88 IMF Working Paper Fiscal Affairs Department Do Fiscal Rules Foster Fiscal Discipline in Resource-Rich Countries? Prepared by Ablam Estel Apeti, Olivier Basdevant, and Véronique Salins Authorized for distribution by Nikolay Gueorguiev April 2023 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT: This paper investigates the performance of fiscal rules in resource-rich countries (RRC). Using panel data for 57 commodity exporting countries from 1976 to 2021, we find that fiscal rules: (i) reduce the procyclicality of real public expenditures with terms of trade in oil exporting countries, and (ii) improve non- resource primary balances in all RRC, especially during terms of trade upturns. The rules’ design matters. Addressing the procyclicality of public expenditures with terms-of-trade can be achieved with expenditure rules, and, for oil-exporters, revenue rules (althoug limited data on the latter calls for taking the results