可能性概率ProbabilityPPT课件.ppt

可能性概率Probability

ProbabilitymultiplicationPFD=P(A∩B)+P(B∩C)+P(A∩C)A1A2B1B2诊断覆盖率DC诊断覆盖率DC未诊断率1-DC

FunctionalsafetyEngineering-Probability

ProbabilityRulesofProbabilityTypesofEventProbabilitymultiplicationProbabilityadditionFaultTrees

ProbabilityAssignmentProbabilityassignedbytwomethods:PhysicalpropertydeterminationGeometry,physicalshapeExperimentaloutcomedeterminationNumberofoccurrences/NumberofTrialsProbabilityisanumber:(0P1)

ProbabilityP(Gold)=0.8FunctionalsafetyP(Mable)=0.75

EventTypesIndependent–EventsthatdonotaffecteachotherCoinTossesDiceThrowsComplimentary–Whenoneoutcomedoesnotoccur,theotherwillalwaysoccurCoinMutuallyExclusive–WhenoneeventoccurtheothercannothappenDice

IndependentEventsEventsthatdonoteffecteachotherTossingoftwocoinsThrowingapairofdiceFailureofonecomponentinasystem?Normallyconsideredindependent

ComplimentaryEventsComplimentaryWhenoneoutcomedoesnotoccur,theotherwillalwaysoccurTossingacoinTwoeventspossible–headandtailsSuccess/Failure?ProbabilityofComplementaryEventsP(A*)=1–P(A)Probabilityofsuccessfuloperationforthenextyearis0.8.Whatistheprobabilityoffailurethenextyear?(0,2)

MutuallyExclusiveEventsMutuallyExclusiveWhenoneeventoccurtheothercannothappenTossofonedieOutcomeof1,2,3,4,5,6aremutuallyexclusive

ProbabilitymultiplicationP(AANDB)=P(A)*P(B)AB

ProbabilitymultiplicationForIndependenteventsP(AANDB)=P(A)*P(B)LimitSwitchSolenoidValveInthenextyear,theprobabilityofsuccessfuloperationforalimitswitchis0.9andtheprobabilityofsuccessfuloperationforasolenoidvalveis0.98.Whatistheprobabilityofsuccessforthesystemconsistingofbothelements?LimitswitchANDsolenoideP(A)*P(B)=0.9*0.98=0.882

ProbabilityAdditionMutuallyExclusiveEventsP(AorB)=P(A)+P(B)AB

ProbabilityAdditionMut