桥水：2019全球展望.pdfVIP

Global Outlook January 2019 One Glendinning Place Westport, CT 06880 (203) 226-3030 OUTLOOK  As global liquidity continued to pull back last year, almost every asset class around the world fell.  The question going forward is what the flow-through will be to growth and how policy makers will respond.  With almost no tightening priced in, any tightening would be faster than discounted, and even a pause would not provide much stimulation.  Markets are pricing earnings to grow at a moderate pace. We think these expectations are too optimistic, particularly in the U.S.  When the next downturn comes, it could be a real mess. Central banks have little room to ease and high levels of political conflict will make an effective policy response difficult. For information about the data sources used to inform the analysis in this outlook and other important information, please review the “Important Disclosures and Other Information” located at the end of the presentation. 1 WE ARE IN THE LATE CYCLE Liquidity Central Bank Tightens Risk Premiums Rise Tightens & Assets Fall Growth Growth Now Rises Slows Risk Premiums Fall Central Bank & Assets Rise