aer.100.2.41 Debt Consolidation and Fiscal Stabilization of Deep Recessions英文清晰版.pdf

American Economic Review: Papers & Proceedings 100 (May 2010): 41–45 /articles.php?doi=10.1257/aer.100.2.41 Debt Consolidation and Fiscal Stabilization of Deep Recessions By Giancarlo Corsetti, Keith Kuester, AndrÉ Meier, and Gernot J. Müller* The global financial crisis of 2008–09 has 26 11 sent public debt on sharply higher trajectories, 25 UK 1/ 10 as governments have provided large scale sup- US (right scale) 2/ 24 9 port to the financial system, implemented dis- cretionary fiscal stimulus, and accommodated 23 8 steep drops in tax revenue. With the economic 22 7 recovery gradually taking hold, the focus is now 21 Projections 6 shifting to fiscal “exit strategies.” Indeed, many 20 5 countries are set to face significant retrenchment 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 in government spending over the medium term. In the United States, for example, the Obama Figure 1. Discretionary Government Expenditure administration’s 2010 budget pledges to “cut the (percent of potential GDP) deficit in half by the end of