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BeyondtheAnnualAverages:
ImpactofSeasonalTemperatureon
EmploymentGrowthinUSCounties
HaNguyen
WP/23/142
IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchin
progressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedto
elicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.
TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersare
thoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarily
representtheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,
orIMFmanagement.
2023
JUN
NAr
rARY
IthankRabahArezki,BasBakker,AdolfoBarajas,RudolfsBems,AndrewBerg,MaiDao,MercedesGarcia-Escribano,HuiHe,
ToanPhan,KoralaiKirabaeva,VladimirKlyuev,AntonKorinek,RuyLama,EmanueleMassetti,RodolfoMaino,JoeProcopio,
NoomanRebei,NikolaSpataforaandMaryamVaziriforveryhelpfulcommentsandfeedback,andRuchunLiforeditorialhelp.IamgratefultoBerkayAkyapiandEmanueleMassettiforintroducingtomeclimatedataviaGoogleEarthEngine.
?2023InternationalMonetaryFund
WP/23/142
IMFWorkingPaper
InstituteofCapacityDevelopment
BeyondtheAnnualAverages:
ImpactofSeasonalTemperatureonEmploymentGrowthinUSCounties
PreparedbyHaNguyen*
AuthorizedfordistributionbyMercedesGarcia-Escribano
June2023
IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedtoelicit
commentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseofthe
author(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.
ABSTRACT:Usingquarterlytemperatureandemploymentdatabetween1990and2021,thispaperuncovers
nuancedevidenceontheimpactofseasonaltemperaturewithinUScounties:higherwintertemperature
increasesprivatesectoremploymentgrowthwhilehighersummertemperaturedecreasesit.Theimpactsof
highertemperatureinmildseasons,fallandspring,arestatisticallyinsignificant.Moreover,thenegativeimpactofhighersummertemperaturepersistswhilethepositiveimpactofhighertemperatureinthewinteri
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