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?2011PearsonEducation,Inc
StatisticsforBusinessandEconomicsChapter13TimeSeries:
DescriptiveAnalyses,Models,Forecasting?2011PearsonEducation,Inc
Content13.1 DescriptiveAnalysis:IndexNumbers13.2 DescriptiveAnalysis:ExponentialSmoothing13.3 TimeSeriesComponents13.4 Forecasting:ExponentialSmoothing13.5 ForecastingTrends:Holt’sMethod13.6 MeasuringForecastAccuracy:MADandRMSE?2011PearsonEducation,Inc
Content13.7 ForecastingTrends:SimpleLinearRegression13.8 SeasonalRegressionModels13.9 AutocorrelationandtheDurbin-WatsonTest?2011PearsonEducation,Inc
LearningObjectivesFocusonmethodsforanalyzingdatageneratedbyaprocessovertime(i.e.,timeseriesdata).Presentdescriptivemethodsforcharacterizingtimeseriesdata.Presentinferentialmethodsforforecastingfuturevaluesoftimeseriesdata.?2011PearsonEducation,Inc
TimeSeriesDatageneratedbyprocessesovertimeDescribeandpredictoutputofprocessesDescriptiveanalysisUnderstandingpatternsInferentialanalysisForecastfuturevalues?2011PearsonEducation,Inc
13.1DescriptiveAnalysis:
IndexNumbers?2011PearsonEducation,Inc
IndexNumberMeasureschangeovertimerelativetoabaseperiodPriceIndexmeasureschangesinpricee.g.ConsumerPriceIndex(CPI)QuantityIndexmeasureschangesinquantitye.g.Numberofcellphonesproducedannually?2011PearsonEducation,Inc
StepsforCalculating
aSimpleIndexNumber1. Obtainthepricesorquantitiesforthecommodityoverthetimeperiodofinterest.2. Selectabaseperiod.3. CalculatetheindexnumberforeachperiodaccordingtotheformulaIndexnumberattimet?2011PearsonEducation,Inc
StepsforCalculating
aSimpleIndexNumberSymbolically,whereItistheindexnumberattimet,Ytisthetimeseriesvalueattimet,andY0isthetimeseriesvalueatthebaseperiod.?2011PearsonEducation,Inc
SimpleIndexNumberExampleThetableshowsthepricepergallonofregulargasolineintheU.Sforth
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