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InvestmentAdvisorywithDerivativesstrategy----EUR/USD2012-27-02
Goodnews AnagreementonasecondinternationalbailoutforGreecereducedinvestorconcerntheregion’sdebtcrisiswillworsen. OvertheweekendwesawtheG20meetandreleaseastatementthatwaslargelyexpectedgivingcommitmentstoincreaseIMFfundinginthefutureandsupporttheEurozone.TheGreekandtheprivatesectorcantradedebtswap TheEUR/USDcontinuedtopushhigherafterbreakingoutonThursdaylastweekabove1.3300. Germanhasbeguntoconsiderexpansionfirewall,andmakerelevantdecisionspriorIMFWashingtonconferenceinApril.
Europeaneconomicdatawasbetterthanexpecte: Lookingahead,JanuaryM3MoneyGrowthforecastat1.8%vs.1.6%previously.AlsoaheadJanuaryHomeSalesforecastat1%vs.-3.5% previously.areportshowedGermanbusinessconfidencerosetothehighestlevelinsevenmonths,easingcrisisconcern Munich-basedIfoinstitutesaiditsbusinessclimateinclimbedto109.6from108.3inJanuary,thehighestreadingsinceJuly.
SomethinguncertainandbadnewsMarketfearsthattheeurozonemayexistobstaclesincarryingoutthesecondinternationalbailoutforGreece: WhethertheGreekparliamentwouldapprovethetermsoftheplan. Whatistheratioofvoluntaryprivatecreditorstradinbondswaps. AfterGreeceelectiononApril,whetherthenewgovernmentwouldaccepttheplan. TheeconomymendneedtobefurtherprovedbyEuropeaneconomicdata. WhethertheEuropeanCentralBankslong-termrefinancingoperationswillexceedtheexpectation. StandardPoorscutGreeceslong-termcreditratingselectivedefaultfromdouble-C.
InteractiveCurrencyChartforEUR-USDExchangeRate(1M) 1.3436onFeb,27
InteractiveCurrencyChartforEUR-USDExchangeRate(DailyCandlestickChart) Today
InteractiveCurrencyChartforEUR-USDExchangeRate(WeeklyCandlestickChart)Today
Prediction Althoughtheupwardtrendwillcontinue,ifthereisnobadoutcome, buy
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