J.P.摩根-美股半导体行业-TMC会议摘要：云计算数据中心5G汽车工业领域需求趋势强劲；进入23年后供应紧张-2022.5.26-24页.docx

Semiconductors TMC Conference Summary: Strong Demand Trends In Cloud Datacenter/5G/Auto/Industrial; Tight Supply Into CY23 This week, we hosted 10 semiconductor and semiconductor capital equipment companies at our 50th annual Global Technology, Media, and Communications Conference, held in Boston. Discussions at this year’s event centered on the current supply/demand imbalance, China demand/supply disruptions, sustainability of the current semiconductor cycle, and longer term structural supply chain tightness. Most of our companies under coverage discussed near-term demand trends exceeding supply (e.g., NXPI, MCHP, ADI, SYNA, GFS all indicating demand outstripping supply) and most companies expect the tight demand/supply dynamics to persist through CY22 and into CY23 (ADI sees supply constraints into mid-CY23). In our view, this suggests companies will continue to retain strong pricing power and we see continued positive EPS revisions over the coming quarters. Companies are being more proactive and open to the potential for a slowdown next year and looking for potential areas of overheating or any signs of weakness in demand. Reflective of this, Microchip has prudently factored in a recession/down cycle assumption in its long term revenue outlook (drives the growth outlook towards the lower end of its target range). That said, despite macro slowdown concerns for CY23, companies continue to see strong backlog/orders (no order cancellations/rescheduling), very lean customer/channel distribution inventory (companies don’t expect channel inventory replenishment this year), and extended lean times/visibility. Moreover in the mature/specialty segment of the market, most of our companies agreed with our assessment of a structural demand/supply imbalance as demand is expected to outpace capacity growth (low- single-digit% capacity growth ex-China) over the next several years. On the demand side, end-markets are strong across cloud/hyperscale datacenter, enterprise hard