基于尺度效应的过程安全事故概率估计accidentprobability-化工学报.pdfVIP

DOI: 10.11949/j.issn.0438-1157 基于尺度效应的过程安全事故概率估计 胡瑾秋，郭家洁 （中国石油大学（北京）油气资源与工程国家重点实验室 机械与储运工程学院，北京 102249） 摘要：为提高过程安全事故概率估计方法的适用性，需在基本事件阶段考虑工艺偏差的传播过程。提出基于尺度效应的过 程安全事故概率估计方法，从工艺偏差角度入手，建立了新的基本事件求解模型。引入了多尺度思想，在大尺度上，考虑 人因失误对工艺偏差的影响，修正基本事件概率。选用模糊Petri 网模型进行事故概率估计。最后通过冲塔事故案例分析验 证模型，结果表明：人的参与对工艺偏差概率具有较大影响，所提方法比较符合实际工况，更适用于过程安全。由于概率 估计是基于统计的数据求取偏差概率，避免了直接对计算参数进行设定的主观性。 关键词：多尺度；过程系统；事故概率；工艺偏差；人因失误；安全 中图分类号：X937 文献标志码：A 文章编号：0438-1157 （2017 ）00-0000-00 Accident Probability Estimation of Process Safety Based on Scale Effect HU Jinqiu，GUO Jiajie （China University of Petroleum-Beijing, State Key Laboratory of Oil and Gas Resources and Engineering, College of Mechanical and Transportation Engineering,, Beijing 102249, China ） Abstract: In order to improve the applicability of probabilistic estimation methods for process safety accidents, the propagation process of deviations should be considered in the basic event stage. A method for estimating the probability of process safety accidents based on scale effects is proposed. A new basic event solving model is established from the point of view of process deviations. Multi-scale ideas is introduced to modify the basic event probability, on the large scale, by considering the effects of human errors on process deviations. The fuzzy Petri net model is used to estimate the accident probability. Finally, the model is analyzed and verified by the case analysis of the fractionating tower accident. The results show that the participation of human has a great influence on the probability of process deviations. The proposed