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14 reliability analysis（PDF 15页）.pdf
Reliability Analysis
Total Quality Management - University of Michigan
1
Pat Hammett
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Reliability Analysis
2
Reliability
n Reliability Defined: Reliability is the probability
that a system or product will perform in a
satisfactory manner for a given period of time
when operated under specified conditions.
n Reliability Analysis: Analysis of system failures
and repairs to:
n increase the design life of a product.
n reduce the likelihood of failures.
n reduce manufacturing process downtime.
n eliminate safety concerns.Reliability Analysis
Total Quality Management - University of Michigan
2
Pat Hammett
3
Reliability and Six Sigma Projects
n Consider the following defects:
n High warranty costs due to excessive
replacement of certain product components.
n Late delivery of products due to excessive
machine downtime.
n An effective method to examine the effects
of these defects is Reliability Analysis.
4
Product Types / Failure Conditions
1.Non-repairable items {replace} (e.g., light bulb)
n interested in probability of first and only failure
(hazard rate)
n Analyze MTTF (mean-time-to-failure)
2.Repairable items (e.g., copy machine)
n interested in probability that a failure will occur over
some time period
n Analyze MTBF (mean-time-between-failures)Reliability Analysis
Total Quality Management - University of Michigan
3
Pat Hammett
5
Reliability Assessment
n To describe failure patterns in order to predict
future issues, we need statistical distributions.
n Common distributions for non-repairable devices:
n Weibull
n Exponential* is special case where failure rate is constant.
n Log-normal
n Normal*
n Common distributions for repairable devices:
n Poisson
n Nonhomogenous Poisson Process (NHPP)
6
Failure Pattern for Product Life
Cycle - Bathtub Curve
Bathtub Curve
l,
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