德国银行全球能源调研究报告.pdf

s c i m o n o c E s c i p o t l a December 2, 2004 n Current Issues o i t a n r e t n I Energy prospects after the petroleum age • In the 1990s low energy prices seemed to suggest that energy supplies were secure. But in the last two years surges in the price of oil, the number one source of energy, and power outages in North America and Europe have shown the urgent need for a renaissance in energy policy targeting secure supply. • At the latest when discoveries of new reserves fall short of demand – which may be the case in just a few years for oil, and slightly later for natural gas – energy prices will climb significantly. The supply situation is being made more acute by the growing hunger for energy in China and India. • This foreseeable shortage must be addressed with intelligent, future-proof strategies. In the longer run, securing energy supplies will be possible only with a broad range of measures. The needs of the moment call for the use of all available levers – the diversification of energy carriers and technologies and the mobilisation