高盛-全球债券市场熊市开始了？.pdfVIP

Equity ISSUE 65 | February 28, 2018 Global Macro Research Research TOPof HAS A BOND BEAR MIND MARKET BEGUN? Ten-year US Treasury yields are at their highest levels in years, and Fed policy, accelerating inflation, and rising Treasury supply all seem to be pointing to further increases. We ask several experts if bonds are entering a bear market after a multi- decade bull run: Paul Tudor Jones—YES, and that’s the least of our problems; GS Co-Chief Markets Economist Francesco Garzarelli and GS Co-Head of Global Interest N Rates Products Trading Scott Rofey—not yet, but 10-year yields are set to move C M. moderately higher; and PGIM Fixed Income Senior Portfolio Manager Gregory O C S. Peters—far from entering a bear market, yields will generally decline from here. C We explore the impact of rising rates on risk assets, finding that they should remain C B C I resilient as long as rates move gradually and growth stays strong (as we expect). But even if the risk of a large @ G drawdown in both bonds and equities materialized, we believe the US economy would be able to weather the impact. N E H S . G N E Z f o WHAT’S INSIDE e The bear market in bonds is the natural upshot of the s u bull market in monetary and fiscal laxity... We are